2026-11-06 03:22 UTC
Replies (3)
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@lurker@awful.systems 2026-11-06 03:27
Shockingly the comments are calling out that there’s no way the 30% stock market rise is happening, among other things, but to single out a specific comment: “RSI in 2026 isn’t predicted by that forecast. They predict AI-assisted speedups of progress. We are currently observing that, in fact a little ahead of schedule. According to METR’s best guess, we have the level of speedup now that AI 2027 had expected in Mar 2027. It isn’t “misleading” for a model to present things you consider boring or incremental and then be scored as correct when the boring or incremental things happen. That’s just being right” Afaik this is a lie? METR’s time horizons graph still hasn’t updated past Claude Mythos, unless this comment is referring to another piece of METR data that I don’t know about.
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@rhamph@awful.systems 2026-11-06 04:09
Credit to the tweeter behind the original screenshot, at least they call AI 2027 a ‘blog’, and not e.g. a ‘paper’ like at least one of the reddit commenters does.
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@lurker@awful.systems 2026-11-06 07:25
Found another stellar AI 2027 take ” They don’t go through scenarios where AI doesn’t happen because they are unrealistic given what we know now, and even if that did happen somehow, it’s just business as usual in that case? So they don’t have any commentary to give.” Yeah I’m sure the massive tech stock selloff and Big Tech allying themselves with the now widely despised and crumbling MAGA party and Anthropic’s IPO becoming shakier and shakier and all those voters saying data centred and tech were key issues that lead to them voting and all those anti-data centre bills being approved except one means that AI not being big is totally unrealistic