#NCwx #OBX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 354 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026 WHAT HAS CHANGED Confidence high on coastal low lingering offshore and deepening in the next 24-36 hours. Increased wind gusts Monday. KEY MESSAGES 1) A slow moving nor`easter taking shape well off the coast bringing a long duration wind and swell event with high impacts for parts of the NC coast into the work week. 2) Drastically cooler behind the front and low for Sunday into the beginning of the week, along with continued breezy northeasterly winds. Marine: Gale Warnings in effect. Prolonged period of strong winds and high seas as nor`easter lingers offshore through at least mid week. DISCUSSION KEY MESSAGE 1...The nor`easter is sitting well offshore, with the RAP MSLP at a minimum of 1009mb. As high builds in the wake of the cold front, strong CAA and gusty nrly winds continue, aided by the deepening low offshore. There continues to be high confidence that a strong Nor`easter will strengthen and linger well off the Carolina coast through early/mid this work week. Strong winds, high waves, and coastal flooding as well as extremely dangerous marine conditions will continue. There is still model uncertainty beyond early week on where the low pressure area will be, but the trend in 18/00Z global guidance including ensemble packet has continued to show a shift a bit further offshore. Of note, quick strengthening of the low as it meanders offshore in addition to a slight westward shift is being indicated by CAMs and some synoptic guidance Monday. To account for this, wind gusts have nudged up a bit Monday. Further increases are possible if future guidance locks in on this trend. Confidence in coastal impacts is high, as long duration and long fetch nerly winds will bring large waves and pile up water along the coast, leading to coastal flooding well into the week. High winds on the coast still expected. Have dropped the Wind Advisory for Mainland Hyde with the most recent forecast keeping the strongest winds along OBX. We will have to watch model trends in case the low deepens substantially and shifts a bit west Monday into Tuesday, in which case chances of stronger wind gusts near 50mph would increase. 2-4 foot above ground level coastal flooding will be possible with minor to moderate impacts throughout the Outer Banks, Core Banks and Downeast Carteret County. Impacts are expected to both sound and oceanside locales with potentially significant impacts to vulnerable areas on the ocean side. A mix of coastal flood headlines is in effect to cover these hazards. One recent addition to the suite of coastal headlines was to issue a Coastal Flood Advisory for Tyrrell County. The Sheriff`s office reported HWY 94 is flooded, with additional public reports of deep water along that stretch of highway. This is likely due to water piling up on the southern end of the Alligator River with strong, gale-force winds blowing straight south down the length of the river. Additionally, a high surf advisory is in effect for the Outer Banks with breaking waves of generally 8-14 feet expected in the surf zone. A moderate to high risk of rip currents is also expected through much of the week. KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures have cooled substantially with the northerly surge. Maximum temperatures through the period are expected to remain in the 60-70 degree range with cooler values inland and warmer temperatures near the coast. Overnight lows will range from the 40s inland just after the frontal passage to the 50s by the end of the week with coastal locations in the 50s early in the forecast period to near 60 by the end of next week. Winds will remain breezy, particularly in the afternoons depending upon the eventual track of the offshore nor`easter. As the low meanders offshore, some wrap around rain may occasionally sneak back onshore, with best chances on the OBX over the next several days. @AE4WX @DismalManorGang @czarbucks @amyedge