Why are forecasters confident that El Niño is on its way? Especially when looking at SSTs and they seem underwhelming?
We need to look deeper into the ocean.
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At @ECMWF@fediscience.org we have routine monitoring plots of the (old) ocean analysis system #ORAS5*.
These are designed by my office mate and ocean expert Eric de Boisseson.
I asked him about El Niño and he immediately pulled up not maps, but vertical cross sections along the equator.
Plots are openly available here:
https://charts.ecmwf.int/catalogue/packages/oras5/products/oras5_xzmaps_1m?AnomalyMode=Anomaly&Field=Temperature
When you look at things this way, the expectation that we will soon get a surface heat anomaly in the eastern Pacific doesn't need much more explanation.
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*The new system, #ORAS6, is in place but publishing the equivalent plots is not yet there.
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